3D Contour Videos

In order for viewers to have a better visual perspective of the 3D Contours, I have uploaded the videos below to YouTube. These are a test of potential routes for how the website could develop and serve to help me decided how to proceed in the future. Eventually, I think I will upload versions which contain narration and investing ideas based on the graphs. Once I figure out how to map the date axis from integers to Dates that should improve the visual experience. In addition, I hope to figure out and be able to overlay the underlying time series for the 3D Contour in the foreground and or background panel.




LPPL Model Working

Honestly, I am shocked at how well The Bubble Index timed this market correction.

The Bubble Index: S&P 500 (1764 days) peaked on September 22, 2014. That was 21 days ago, the critical time variable, Tc, in the code.

Today’s S&P 500 sell-off was intense, to say the least… down 1.65%. And this wasn’t the only day with huge losses. Since the market peaked on September 19th, it has lost about 10%.

Observations and Updates – USA (1790 – Present)

Looking at the 10080 day window of The Bubble Index: DJIA, there is a low in 1948 and a peak in 1968, which is followed by another low in 1988; the final peak displayed is reached in November 2007. It is clear that there is a 20 year upswing followed by a 20 year down-swing. Extrapolating this trend, the end of the current down-swing will be in 2028, give or take a year or two. This will be followed by a peak around 2048. What this means, I am not sure; however, in the time period between 1968 and 1988, the DJIA was relatively flat. I could speculate and say that the same will be the case for the DJIA for the period from 2008 to 2028. Then, in the period 2028 – 2048, a new large scale bull market will emerge. (UPDATE: the data from 1790 – Present show that there is not a predictable pattern)

Currently, I am working on extending the DJIA Index from 1896-Present to 1790-Present using economic indicators and stochastic simulation. This will allow The Bubble Index to estimate daily levels in the time range from 1790-1896. Although the data will be simulated and artificial at the daily level, it will be made in such a way to fit the industrial production data going back to 1790. This will allow the creation of a reliable extension of the longer day window indices (1260, 1764, 2520, 5040, 10080 days) back to the 19th century.


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