Looking at the 10080 day window of The Bubble Index: DJIA, there is a low in 1948 and a peak in 1968, which is followed by another low in 1988; the final peak displayed is reached in November 2007. It is clear that there is a 20 year upswing followed by a 20 year down-swing. Extrapolating this trend, the end of the current down-swing will be in 2028, give or take a year or two. This will be followed by a peak around 2048. What this means, I am not sure; however, in the time period between 1968 and 1988, the DJIA was relatively flat. I could speculate and say that the same will be the case for the DJIA for the period from 2008 to 2028. Then, in the period 2028 – 2048, a new large scale bull market will emerge. (UPDATE: the data from 1790 – Present show that there is not a predictable pattern)
Currently, I am working on extending the DJIA Index from 1896-Present to 1790-Present using economic indicators and stochastic simulation. This will allow The Bubble Index to estimate daily levels in the time range from 1790-1896. Although the data will be simulated and artificial at the daily level, it will be made in such a way to fit the industrial production data going back to 1790. This will allow the creation of a reliable extension of the longer day window indices (1260, 1764, 2520, 5040, 10080 days) back to the 19th century.