TNX Update

With the upcoming FOMC meeting, it is worth revisiting the CBOE 10-Year Gov’t Rate (TNX). It appears that the 8,100 day window, which recently peaked is trying to find a direction. Will the bubble continue? In the actual data files, the 8,200 day window peaked on February 13; the 8,100 day window also peaked on February 13 — only to peak again on February 27. This indicates that we could be near a phase transition in the 10-Year rate. I am not yet sure what this graph implies. This is a very long term signal, since 8,200 days is about 33 business years. Remember that not all bubbles are followed by a crash.

tnx_10 tnx_11 TNX_12 TNX_13 TNX_14