The Bubble Index and Daneric’s Elliott Wave Count Comparison

The American stock market appears to be at a critical juncture. On the one hand, various trading blogs such as the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on, suggest a continuation of a Primary 5 Wave Impulse up-trend in place since the 2009 low. Other Elliott Wave traders, like Daneric’s Elliott Waves, place the current up-trend as a B Wave rebound from the 2008-9 A Wave correction. In a previous post I mentioned the connection between The Bubble Index and Anthony Caldaro’s EWC. In this post I suggest a connection with Daneric’s EWC. The graphs below show this connection with The Bubble Index: DJIA. I neither agree nor disagree with Caldaro/Daneric. The comparison is presented here for comment.

Graph 1. The Bubble Index: DJIA (5,040 Days) with Daneric’s EWC
Graph 2. The Bubble Index: DJIA (10,080 Days) with Daneric’s EWC
Graph 3. The Bubble Index: DJIA (20,160 Days) with Daneric’s EWC

Elliott Wave Count and LPPL Oscillations

In the following chart, you can see a relationship between The Bubble Index and Elliott Waves. The Elliott Wave Count is from the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on; the blog of Anthony Caldaro. His charts can be found here.

The Bubble Index 1764 days tends to peak with Intermediate waves i, iii, and iv; while The Bubble Index 1260 days tends to peak with Major waves 1, 3, and 5.

Supercycle: Light Blue
Blue: Primary
Black: Major
Intermediate: Purple

Commodity Fetishism, Bubbles, and Elliott Waves

Perhaps a connection between these ideas? This quote from Wikipedia’s page on commodity fetishism triggered a curiosity:

The value of a commodity originates from the human being’s intellectual and perceptual capacity to consciously (subjectively) ascribe a relative value (importance) to a commodity, the goods and services manufactured by the labour of a worker. Therefore, in the course of the economic transactions (buying and selling) that constitute market exchange, people ascribe subjective values to the commodities (goods and services), which the buyers and the sellers then perceive as objective values, the market-exchange prices that people will pay for the commodities.

Read here for more information on commodity fetishism. I saw Dr. Rodrigue’s plot while reading more about Karl Marx’s commodity fetishism on Wikipedia. Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue’s blog (where there is commentary on market bubbles) contains the following graphic:

There are many ideas in my mind after reading and thinking about the connections between commodity fetishism, bubbles, and Elliott Waves. In addition, the plot of bubble phases by Dr. Rodrigue’s has a clear connection with the 5 wave impulse and 3 wave correction. I need to think more about some of these ideas and formulate some clearly written ideas.

Multiagent’s model of stock market with p-adic description of prices – Viktor Zharkov Mikhailovich

I find the ideas of Elliott and Prechter to be of extreme importance in understanding large scale social networks of humans. The idea of Elliott Waves, their numbering and theory are convincing as evidence suggests in the charts and data of financial history. I would not be surprised if further research into the physics, math, biology, and dynamics of massive human networks reached the conclusion that Elliott Waves are the result of a fundamental physical process governed by mathematical relationships inherent in human networks.

Perhaps the paper by Viktor Zharkov Mikhailovich, entitled Multiagent’s model of stock market with p-adic description of prices is such an answer.