The Bubble Index Contour: DJIA (1871 – 2015)

The results for The Bubble Index Contour: DJIA from 1871 to 2015 are presented below. There are several features worth mentioning.

Overall Trend

The first is the overall trend toward larger absolute values as time progresses towards the present.

23,200 Day Window Growing Pressure

The second most striking feature, which is most relevant to current investment strategies, is the large pressure formation centred on the 23,200 day window. The values in the graph were interpolated with a spline, so there are some artefacts produced. They falsely seem to indicate that the pressure has peaked in the 23,200 window, however, upon inspecting the raw data, this time window has not yet peaked. However, the derivative is close to and fast approaching zero. This would seem to indicate a phase transition of the largest magnitude yet observed will occur in the near future.

2008-9 Pressure Peaks

The pressure peak below and slightly to the left of the current 23,200 pressure growth corresponds to the bottom of the 2008-9 crash, where the DJIA reach a low of 6,443. This pressure point has a peak which occurred in the 15,000 day window.

The pressure peak below and slightly to the left of the aforementioned 15,000 day window peak was the peak in the 9,500 day window which corresponded to the peak value of 14,200 in the DJIA in 2007.

Other images:

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