The Bubble Index will now be displayed as a plot and available as a PDF download. The plot displays the last 252 days of data.
The Crisis of 2008-9 – Dow Jones Industrial
The following PDF shows The Bubble Index before and after the Crisis of 2008-9. Unlike the 1764 day index, which does not display a spike before the panic, the 10080 day index clearly shows a massive increase. And the same happens with the 20160 day index. What’s striking is that this increase started in the early 1980’s. This increase reaches a peak in November 2008.
The Internet Bubble – The Bubble Index
The following PDF shows The Bubble Index before and after the Internet Bubble of the late 1990’s. NOTE: This is the standardized version, so a value of 100 would correspond to the value of The Bubble Index: DJIA (1764 days) on October 1, 1929.
The Crash of 1987 – Dow Jones Industrial
The following PDF shows The Bubble Index before and after the crash of 1987. It is interesting to note that the spike before the crash is not followed by another spike, as in the case of the 1929 crash.
The Crash of 1929 – Dow Jones Industrial
The following PDF shows The Bubble Index before and after the crash of 1929. It is interesting to note the spike before the crash, followed by another spike of larger magnitude after the huge decline.
JavaCL Update
The Java Swing GUI program I wrote to calculate the values for The Bubble Index takes advantage of multi-threading. The parallel threads execute a list of futures formed from Callables. The number of threads available on the host machine will execute and process the queue in parallel.
I have two desktops. One has an AMD FX CPU with 8 processors and the other is an Intel i5 with 4 processors. Their speed is suitable for updating the values of The Bubble Index for all the various assets. However, if I needed to rerun every time-series for every time window, this would take weeks. Each desktop has a GPU ready to be given work. If these GPUs could help compute The Bubble Index, then the time to generate an entire Bubble Index would be magnitudes smaller.
The Bubble Index algorithm involves curve fitting over a (i, j) 2-Dimensional space of parameters. It searches for the best fit over 342 combinations of parameters. On a time series such as TSLA (Tesla Motor), which contains around 1000 daily prices, the 512 day window will run 488 parallel processes. On the AMD FX with all 8 cores, this would take on the order of 40min. On the Intel around 50min. To calculate the 52, 104, 153, 256, 512 windows for TSLA would take around 1.5 hours.
Now, thanks to OpenCL and JavaCL, running all these windows for TSLA now takes only around 3min on an NVIDIA GT 630. Nothing short of Amazing!
The conversion of the Callables and Futures to a structure suitable for GPU parallel processing seemed easy; but the process proved challenging and enlightening. I had plenty of debugging headaches and late nights. The way I proceeded was as follows: First download the NVIDIA driver for my graphics card. Next install the CUDA toolkit. Note: There are really cool CUDA examples written in C included in the toolkit. Then I downloaded Netbeans with Java. A helpful next step was to access the Maven Archetype application called javacl-simple-tutorial. From this point forward, it was a matter of translating my old code into OpenCL and JavaCL code.
The javacl simple tutorial provides a nice starting point to begin building a GPU application. The book, OpenCL in Action was also helpful in understanding the underlying processes involved in memory transfer and kernel execution. One of the biggest issues I had was the allocation of local arrays on the device. I needed each work-item to have its own allocation of a specific float array. Apparently, JavaCL does not support __local float* array (only __local int* array). I finally came to realize that the proper allocation of local memory vs. host memory provided the answer. Since JavaCL does not support __local float*, I struggled to find a solution. In retrospect the solution is simple. Instead of allocating a __local float* array on the device, it is suitable to allocate a large enough array for all work-items to use a single __global float* array shared by the host and device — each work-item having its own private subsection of this massive array.
There were also some difficulties in getting the new values produced by the GPU to match the old values produced by the CPU. Previously, all values were stored as a double. Since not all OpenCL devices support double-precision floating-point format, I decided to convert the calculations to float. The conversion of all values from double to float did change the values by a small percentage. The differences were AT MOST of magnitude 1.0%. The output from several series were compared and I believe the difference is so small in most cases as to be negligible. The switch to JavaCL is now successful.
Thanks to this new overhaul, the normalization of all The Bubble Indices will proceed much faster. Also, I will be adding many new commodities to the site.
Major Changes
UPDATE: Some of this is incorrect
There are a few changes which will be made to The Bubble Index website; changes which will require massive computation. So, over the next few weeks there will be fewer daily updates.
Changes include:
- Adding search functionality in the navigation bar
- The standardization of every Bubble Index
- Creating a standard set of windows (52 days, 153 days, 256 days, 512 days, 1260 days, 1764 days, 2520 days, and 5040 days) for all stocks, indices, commodities, and currencies.
The last two changes will allow every Bubble Index for a given window to be comparable with each other. In other words, say I want to compare the relative herding in two securities — The Bubble Index: GOOG (512 days) with The Bubble Index: DJIA (512 days). This will be possible after the changes are complete. The standardization will set 100.00 as the level of The Bubble Index on October 23, 1929 for all windows.
So, if The Bubble Index: GOOG (512 days) is at 18.65 today, then I would know that herding behavior is only 18.65% of that seen in The Bubble Index: DJIA (512 days) on October 23, 1929, several days before the Wall Street Crash of 1929.
As of today, the issue with The Bubble Index for a single security is that the index levels are relative to their own values. This hinders the usefulness of time series with shorter time horizons, like Tesla (TSLA) with only three years of history. In addition, on time series with long time horizons, like the DJIA, the massive difference in absolute price affects the level of the index (not the shape and structure, just the relative size of the “spikes”). This is bothersome and I should have corrected this a long time ago. Example of the normalization change in the DJIA (RED is the non-normalized curve):
Financial Crisis Observatory
The Financial Crisis Observatory displays similar results and provides some interactive time series. I would suggest visiting the site as an additional resource when analyzing LPPL Oscillations and Elliot Wave counts.
Testing The Bubble Index
In the next couple of days, The Bubble Index will have calculated a 153, 256, and 512 day window for almost 600 stocks and around 30 indices, currencies, and commodities. With all this data I will be testing the relationship between the index and price movements. My hypothesis: The Bubble Index predicts monthly price movements (up or down) of 20% or higher more than 21 days in advance of the movement.
The Bubble Index: DJIA – February 27, 2014
This post shows the new updated format of the PDF files from The Bubble Index. Also, it is interesting to note the 2520 and 5040 day windows… I just created them after a week of computer processing on an 8 core FMX.