Gold – Week Ending May 20, 2013

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May 20, 2013:

The bubble index for the price of gold, shown in the following figures, indicates that gold is undergoing a bubble. Based on my data, although limited to 2001-2013 the bubble index has traveled continuously upward. If I can find better weekly data for the price of gold, then this upward trend can be properly put into perspective. Or, the code may not be properly designed for commodity prices. The price data is not inflation adjusted.

Figure 1

Figure 1 shows the bubble index for the price of gold. One year window. The red line corresponds to the following (ignore the dates on the graph, they are incorrect):
1. September 8, 2006 – followed by an 8.6% drop shortly after
2. July 19, 2008 – followed by a 28% drop
3. August 19, 2011 – followed by a 13% drop

Figure 2

Figure 2 shows the bubble index for the price of gold. Three year window. The red line corresponds to the following:
1. July 11, 2008 – followed by a 25% drop

Figure 3

Figure 3 shows the bubble index for the price of gold. Six year window.

Figure 4

Figure 4 shows the bubble index for the price of gold. Seven year window.

S&P500 and DJIA – Week Ending May 20, 2013

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NOTE:
The posts before this one had some errors in the C++ code. I believe I have worked the most of the bugs out and this post contains the best plots to date.

I have been working on code to make a single plot which combines multiple sizes of data. When this has been finished there will only be one plot, not a six and seven year window together.

Also, the weekly data will now begin and end on Mondays, since I obtain my data from finance.yahoo.com.

Week ending May 20, 2013 for the S&P 500.

Based on the figures, there appears to be no indication of a current bubble.

Figure 1

Figure 1 was produced with C++ code. S&P 500. Six year window of data. Every data point is a new week. Every peak in the market is represented by a red vertical line.

1. Sept. 28, 1987 — followed by a 31.7% drop

2. August 28, 2000 — followed by a 36.5% drop

3. April 19, 2010 — followed by a 16% drop

Figure 2

 Figure 2 was produced with C++ code. S&P 500. Seven year window of data. Every data point is a new week. Every peak in the market is represented by a red vertical line.

Same lines as Figure 1.

Week ending May 20, 2013 for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Based on the figures, there appears to be no indication of a current bubble.

Figure 3

Figure 3 was produced with C++ code. Dow Jones Industrial Average. Six year window of data. Every data point is a new week. Every peak in the market is represented by a red vertical line.
1. December 31, 1909 — followed by a 23% drop
2. October 2, 1929 — followed by a 43% drop
3. March 12, 1937 — followed by a 40% drop
4. September 23, 1955 — followed by a quick 8.7% drop and then recovery
5. January 8, 1960 — followed by a 15.6% drop
6. October 2, 1987 — followed by a 31.7% drop
7. July 27, 1990 — followed by a 17% drop
8. September 8, 2000 — followed by a 36% drop
9. October 12, 2007 — followed by a drop in excess of 42%
10. July 8, 2011 — followed by a 16% drop

Figure 4

Figure 4 was produced with C++ code. Dow Jones Industrial Average. Seven year window of data. Every data point is a new week. Every peak in the market is represented by a red vertical line.
Numbers correspond to same as Figure 3.

KLSE – Week Ending May 10, 2013

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May 10, 2013:

Looking at the Figure 1, I do not see any chances of there being a bubble in the KLSE Index at this time.

Figure 1

Figure 1 produced with C++ code. KLSE Index. Six year window of data. Every data point is a new week. Every peak in the market is represented by a red vertical line.
1. March 15, 2004 – followed by a 12.5% drop
2. June 19, 2006 – no drop
3. February 12, 2007 – no drop
4. September 22, 2009 – no drop

Bovespa – Week Ending May 10, 2013

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May 10, 2013:

I do not see any chances of there being a bubble in the Bovespa Index at this time.

Figure 1

Figure 1 produced with C++ code. Bovespa Index. Six year window of data. Every data point is a new week. Every peak in the market is represented by a red vertical line.
1. January 5, 2004 – followed by a 23.5% drop
2. March 26, 2008 – followed by a 57% drop
3. January 4, 2010 – followed by a quick 10.7% drop and then recovery

Figure 2

Figure 2 produced with C++ code. Bovespa Index. Seven year window of data. Every data point is a new week. Every peak in the market is represented by a red vertical line.
1. January 5, 2004 – followed by a 23.5% drop
2. November 12, 2007 – followed by a 12.4% drop
3. March 26, 2008 – followed by a 57% drop
4. January 4, 2010 – followed by a quick 10.7% drop and then recovery
5. January 10, 2011 – followed by a 28% drop

DAX – Week Ending May 10, 2013

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May 10, 2013:

I do not see any chances of there being a bubble in the DAX Index at this time.

Figure 1

Figure 1 produced with C++ code. DAX Index. Six year window of data. Every data point is a new week. Every peak in the market is represented by a red vertical line.
1. January 2, 2002 – followed by a 33% drop
2. December 1, 2003 – no drop
3. May 2, 2006 – followed by a quick 12% drop and recovery
4. May 26, 2008 – followed by a 38% drop
5. January 4, 2010 – followed by a quick 10% drop and recovery

Figure 2

Figure 2 produced with C++ code. DAX Index. Seven year window of data. Every data point is a new week. Every peak in the market is represented by a red vertical line.
1. May 21, 2001 – followed by a 39% drop
2. January 2, 2002 – followed by a 33% drop
3. December 1, 2003 – no drop
4. May 2, 2006 – followed by a quick 12% drop and recovery
5. January 4, 2010 – followed by a quick 10% drop and recovery
6. July 4, 2011 – followed by a 30% drop

FTSE – Week Ending May 10, 2013

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May 10, 2013:

I do not see any chances of there being a bubble in the FTSE Index at this time.

Figure 1

Figure 1 produced with C++ code. FTSE Index. Six year window of data. Every data point is a new week. Every peak in the market is represented by a red vertical line.
1. Februray 15, 1996 – followed by a small 4.8% decrease and then quick recovery
2. August 29, 2000 – followed by a 20% drop
3. April 18, 2006 – followed by a quick 8.7% drop and quick recovery
4 . January 4, 2010 – followed eventually by a 12.6% drop

Figure 2

Figure 2 produced with C++ code. FTSE Index. Seven year window of data. Every data point is a new week. Every peak in the market is represented by a red vertical line.
1. September 29, 1997 – followed by a quick 11% drop
2. July 12, 1999 – followed by a quick 9.5% drop
3. June 4, 2001 – followed by a 25% drop
4. January 4, 2010 – followed by a 12% drop
5. July 4, 2011 – followed by a 15.9% drop
6. September 10, 2012 – followed by a small 5% drop and quick recovery

BSE SENSEX – Week Ending May 10, 2013

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May 10, 2013:

I do not see any chances of there being a bubble in the BSE SENSEX Index at this time. Seems quiet…

Figure 1

Figure 1 produced with C++ code. BSE SENSEX Index. Six year window of data. Every data point is a new week. Every peak in the market is represented by a red vertical line.
1. May 12, 2008 – followed by a 22.8% drop
2. October 12, 2009 – followed by an 8% drop
3. December 27, 2010 – followed by a 13.7% drop

Figure 2

Figure 2 produced with C++ code. BSE SENSEX Index. Seven year window of data. Every data point is a new week. Every peak in the market is represented by a red vertical line.
1. January 7, 2008 – followed by a drop in excess of 28%
2. October 12, 2009 – followed by an 8% drop
3. December 27, 2010 – followed by a 13.7% drop

Nikkei – Week Ending May 10, 2013

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May 10, 2013:

I do not see any chances of there being a bubble in the Nikkei Index at this time. Although, there appears to have been a recent bubble.

Figure 1

Figure 1 produced with C++ code. Nikkei Index. Seven year window of data. Every data point is a new week. Every peak in the market is represented by a red vertical line.
1. June 24, 1996 – followed by a 23.2% drop
2. May 20, 2002 – followed by a 35.7% drop
3. September 29, 2008 – followed by a 34% drop
4. March 29, 2010 – followed by a 20% drop
5. March 12, 2012 – followed by a 16.7% drop

Figure 2

Figure 2 produced with C++ code. Nikkei Index. Six year window of data. Every data point is a new week. Every peak in the market is represented by a red vertical line.
1. May 1, 1995 – followed by a 15% drop
2. November 18, 1996 – followed by a 18% drop
3. September 17, 2001 – exact bottom of downturn (or perhaps related to Sept. 11, 2001)
4. March 29, 2010 – followed by a 20% drop
5. March 12, 2012 – followed by a 16.7% drop

Hang Seng – Week Ending May 10, 2013

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May 10, 2013:

Looking at the Figure 1, I do not see any chances of there being a bubble in the Hang Seng Index at this time. However, based on Figure 2, there may a be growing peak.

Figure 1

Figure 1 produced with C++ code. Hang Seng Index. Seven year window of data. Every data point is a new week. Every peak in the market is represented by a red vertical line.
1. August 4, 1997 — followed by a 46.6% drop
2. July 17, 2000 — followed by a 19.8% drop
3. February 23, 2004 — followed by a 18.9%
4. October 29, 2007 — followed by a 58.6% drop
5. April 4, 2011 — followed by a 27.9% drop

Figure 2

Figure 2 produced with C++ code. Hang Seng Index. Six year window of data. Every data point is a new week. Every peak in the market is represented by a red vertical line.
1. August 4, 1997 — followed by a 46.6% drop
2. January 4, 1999 — followed by a quick 14% drop
3. July 17, 2000 — followed by a 19.8% drop
4. February 23, 2004 — followed by a 18.9%
5. October 29, 2007 — followed by a 58.6% drop
6. May 12, 2008 — followed by a 51% drop
7. November 30, 2009 — followed by a 13% drop
8. April 4, 2011 — followed by a 27.9% drop

S&P500 and DJIA – Week Ending May 10, 2013

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May 10, 2013:

Looking at the following graphs, I believe only Figure 1 forecasts any bubble. Towards the end of the index there lies strong spike and decline. However, this signal is not present in the other figures.

Figure 1

Figure 1 produced with C++ code. S&P 500. Seven year window of data. Every data point is a new week. Every peak in the market is represented by a red vertical line.
1. January 17, 1966 — followed by a 20.9% drop

2. January 15, 1973 — followed by a drop in excess of 23%
3. December 27, 1976 — followed by a drop in excess of 14.7%
4. March 26, 1984 — followed by a 11.8% drop
5. Sept. 28, 1987 — followed by a 31.7% drop
6. July 9, 1990 — followed by a 17.4% drop
7. August 28, 2000 — followed by a 36.5% drop
8. October 1, 2007 — followed by a drop in excess of 42%
9. July 18, 2011 — followed by a 16.5% drop
Figure 2

Figure 2 was produced with C++ code. S&P 500. Six year window of data. Every data point is a new week. Every peak in the market is represented by a red vertical line.

1. Sept. 28, 1987 — followed by a 31.7% drop

2. August 28, 2000 — followed by a 36.5% drop

3. April 19, 2010 — followed by a 16% drop

Figure 3

Figure 3 was produced with C++ code. Dow Jones Industrial Average. Six year window of data. Every data point is a new week. Every peak in the market is represented by a red vertical line.
1. December 31, 1909 — followed by a 23% drop
2. October 2, 1929 — followed by a 43% drop
3. March 12, 1937 — followed by a 40% drop
4. January 8, 1960 — followed by a 15.6% drop
5. October 2, 1987 — followed by a 31.7% drop
6. July 27, 1990 — followed by a 17% drop
7. September 8, 2000 — followed by a 36% drop
8. October 12, 2007 — followed by a drop in excess of 42%

Figure 4

Figure 4 was produced with C++ code. Dow Jones Industrial Average. Seven year window of data. Every data point is a new week. Every peak in the market is represented by a red vertical line.
1. December 31, 1909 — followed by a 23% drop
2. October 2, 1929 — followed by a 43% drop
3. March 12, 1937 — followed by a 40% drop
4. September 23, 1955 — followed by a quick 8.7% drop and then recovery
5. January 8, 1960 — followed by a 15.6% drop
6. October 2, 1987 — followed by a 31.7% drop
7. July 27, 1990 — followed by a 17% drop
8. September 8, 2000 — followed by a 36% drop
9. October 12, 2007 — followed by a drop in excess of 42%
10. July 8, 2011 — followed by a 16% drop