The Bubble Index captures the massive selling behavior in December 2012. It also indicates recent past and current instability.
Category: united states
The Bubble Index: Best Buy – August 19, 2013
The Bubble Index shows that the recent steep decline in Best Buy was due to herding behavior on the sell side.
S&P500 and DJIA – June 4, 2013
Code now runs daily data. Here are the daily data results for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
DJIA – June 4, 2013
There does not appear to be a bubble at this time. It is striking how good this index works. The red vertical lines are the largest single day % declines in the history of the respective index. Link
S&P 500 – June 4, 2013
S&P500 and DJIA – Week Ending May 28, 2013
S&P 500
Week ending May 28, 2013.
Based on the figures, there appears to be no indication of a current bubble.
SP500 Bubble Index (52 weeks)
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10/07/1974
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01/11/1988
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01/12/2009
SP500 Bubble Index (104 weeks)
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06/08/2009
SP500 Bubble Index (260 weeks)
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04/09/1956
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03/02/1987
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02/01/1999
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10/05/2009
SP500 Bubble Index (364 weeks)
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02/01/1960
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09/08/1987
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09/11/2000
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08/08/2011
SP500 Bubble Index (520 weeks)
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04/30/1990
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10/09/2000
Dow Jones Industrial Average
Week ending May 27, 2013.
Based on the figures, there appears to be no indication of a current bubble.
DowJones Bubble Index (52 weeks)
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07/15/1932
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12/26/2008
DowJones Bubble Index (260 weeks)
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01/27/1933
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07/10/1987
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07/17/1998
DowJones Bubble Index (364 weeks)
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05/08/1908
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11/01/1929
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12/14/1934
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01/13/1956
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09/11/1987
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02/25/2000
DowJones Bubble Index (520 weeks)
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11/30/1934
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03/18/1938
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06/27/1958
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06/29/1990
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08/25/2000
DowJones Bubble Index (1040 weeks)
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05/23/1930
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03/15/1935
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06/07/1940
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09/13/1957
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01/05/1990
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07/21/2000
S&P500 and DJIA – Week Ending May 20, 2013
NOTE:
The posts before this one had some errors in the C++ code. I believe I have worked the most of the bugs out and this post contains the best plots to date.
I have been working on code to make a single plot which combines multiple sizes of data. When this has been finished there will only be one plot, not a six and seven year window together.
Also, the weekly data will now begin and end on Mondays, since I obtain my data from finance.yahoo.com.
Week ending May 20, 2013 for the S&P 500.
Based on the figures, there appears to be no indication of a current bubble.
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| Figure 1 |
Figure 1 was produced with C++ code. S&P 500. Six year window of data. Every data point is a new week. Every peak in the market is represented by a red vertical line.
1. Sept. 28, 1987 — followed by a 31.7% drop
2. August 28, 2000 — followed by a 36.5% drop
3. April 19, 2010 — followed by a 16% drop
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| Figure 2 |
Figure 2 was produced with C++ code. S&P 500. Seven year window of data. Every data point is a new week. Every peak in the market is represented by a red vertical line.
Same lines as Figure 1.
Week ending May 20, 2013 for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Based on the figures, there appears to be no indication of a current bubble.
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| Figure 3 |
Figure 3 was produced with C++ code. Dow Jones Industrial Average. Six year window of data. Every data point is a new week. Every peak in the market is represented by a red vertical line.
1. December 31, 1909 — followed by a 23% drop
2. October 2, 1929 — followed by a 43% drop
3. March 12, 1937 — followed by a 40% drop
4. September 23, 1955 — followed by a quick 8.7% drop and then recovery
5. January 8, 1960 — followed by a 15.6% drop
6. October 2, 1987 — followed by a 31.7% drop
7. July 27, 1990 — followed by a 17% drop
8. September 8, 2000 — followed by a 36% drop
9. October 12, 2007 — followed by a drop in excess of 42%
10. July 8, 2011 — followed by a 16% drop
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| Figure 4 |
Figure 4 was produced with C++ code. Dow Jones Industrial Average. Seven year window of data. Every data point is a new week. Every peak in the market is represented by a red vertical line.
Numbers correspond to same as Figure 3.
S&P500 and DJIA – Week Ending May 10, 2013
May 10, 2013:
Looking at the following graphs, I believe only Figure 1 forecasts any bubble. Towards the end of the index there lies strong spike and decline. However, this signal is not present in the other figures.
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| Figure 1 |
Figure 1 produced with C++ code. S&P 500. Seven year window of data. Every data point is a new week. Every peak in the market is represented by a red vertical line.
1. January 17, 1966 — followed by a 20.9% drop
2. January 15, 1973 — followed by a drop in excess of 23%
3. December 27, 1976 — followed by a drop in excess of 14.7%
4. March 26, 1984 — followed by a 11.8% drop
5. Sept. 28, 1987 — followed by a 31.7% drop
6. July 9, 1990 — followed by a 17.4% drop
7. August 28, 2000 — followed by a 36.5% drop
8. October 1, 2007 — followed by a drop in excess of 42%
9. July 18, 2011 — followed by a 16.5% drop
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| Figure 2 |
Figure 2 was produced with C++ code. S&P 500. Six year window of data. Every data point is a new week. Every peak in the market is represented by a red vertical line.
1. Sept. 28, 1987 — followed by a 31.7% drop
2. August 28, 2000 — followed by a 36.5% drop
3. April 19, 2010 — followed by a 16% drop
 |
| Figure 3 |
Figure 3 was produced with C++ code. Dow Jones Industrial Average. Six year window of data. Every data point is a new week. Every peak in the market is represented by a red vertical line.
1. December 31, 1909 — followed by a 23% drop
2. October 2, 1929 — followed by a 43% drop
3. March 12, 1937 — followed by a 40% drop
4. January 8, 1960 — followed by a 15.6% drop
5. October 2, 1987 — followed by a 31.7% drop
6. July 27, 1990 — followed by a 17% drop
7. September 8, 2000 — followed by a 36% drop
8. October 12, 2007 — followed by a drop in excess of 42%
 |
| Figure 4 |
Figure 4 was produced with C++ code. Dow Jones Industrial Average. Seven year window of data. Every data point is a new week. Every peak in the market is represented by a red vertical line.
1. December 31, 1909 — followed by a 23% drop
2. October 2, 1929 — followed by a 43% drop
3. March 12, 1937 — followed by a 40% drop
4. September 23, 1955 — followed by a quick 8.7% drop and then recovery
5. January 8, 1960 — followed by a 15.6% drop
6. October 2, 1987 — followed by a 31.7% drop
7. July 27, 1990 — followed by a 17% drop
8. September 8, 2000 — followed by a 36% drop
9. October 12, 2007 — followed by a drop in excess of 42%
10. July 8, 2011 — followed by a 16% drop