Category: south america

May 10, 2013:

I do not see any chances of there being a bubble in the Bovespa Index at this time.

Figure 1

Figure 1 produced with C++ code. Bovespa Index. Six year window of data. Every data point is a new week. Every peak in the market is represented by a red vertical line.
1. January 5, 2004 – followed by a 23.5% drop
2. March 26, 2008 – followed by a 57% drop
3. January 4, 2010 – followed by a quick 10.7% drop and then recovery

Figure 2

Figure 2 produced with C++ code. Bovespa Index. Seven year window of data. Every data point is a new week. Every peak in the market is represented by a red vertical line.
1. January 5, 2004 – followed by a 23.5% drop
2. November 12, 2007 – followed by a 12.4% drop
3. March 26, 2008 – followed by a 57% drop
4. January 4, 2010 – followed by a quick 10.7% drop and then recovery
5. January 10, 2011 – followed by a 28% drop