May 10, 2013:
Looking at the Figure 1, I do not see any chances of there being a bubble in the Hang Seng Index at this time. However, based on Figure 2, there may a be growing peak.
 |
| Figure 1 |
Figure 1 produced with C++ code. Hang Seng Index. Seven year window of data. Every data point is a new week. Every peak in the market is represented by a red vertical line.
1. August 4, 1997 — followed by a 46.6% drop
2. July 17, 2000 — followed by a 19.8% drop
3. February 23, 2004 — followed by a 18.9%
4. October 29, 2007 — followed by a 58.6% drop
5. April 4, 2011 — followed by a 27.9% drop
 |
| Figure 2 |
Figure 2 produced with C++ code. Hang Seng Index. Six year window of data. Every data point is a new week. Every peak in the market is represented by a red vertical line.
1. August 4, 1997 — followed by a 46.6% drop
2. January 4, 1999 — followed by a quick 14% drop
3. July 17, 2000 — followed by a 19.8% drop
4. February 23, 2004 — followed by a 18.9%
5. October 29, 2007 — followed by a 58.6% drop
6. May 12, 2008 — followed by a 51% drop
7. November 30, 2009 — followed by a 13% drop
8. April 4, 2011 — followed by a 27.9% drop