The following PDF shows The Bubble Index before and after the Internet Bubble of the late 1990’s. NOTE: This is the standardized version, so a value of 100 would correspond to the value of The Bubble Index: DJIA (1764 days) on October 1, 1929.
Category: dow jones
The Crash of 1987 – Dow Jones Industrial
The following PDF shows The Bubble Index before and after the crash of 1987. It is interesting to note that the spike before the crash is not followed by another spike, as in the case of the 1929 crash.
The Crash of 1929 – Dow Jones Industrial
The following PDF shows The Bubble Index before and after the crash of 1929. It is interesting to note the spike before the crash, followed by another spike of larger magnitude after the huge decline.
The Bubble Index: DJIA – February 27, 2014
This post shows the new updated format of the PDF files from The Bubble Index. Also, it is interesting to note the 2520 and 5040 day windows… I just created them after a week of computer processing on an 8 core FMX.
The Bubble Index: Dow Jones – August 22, 2013
The Bubble Index for the Dow Jones Industrial Average indicates that there is no herding behavior in the American market. Both graphs show that the current index lies below the long term average. However, investors should be aware that both indices are currently increasing in value.
S&P500 and DJIA – June 10, 2013
Looking at the following graphs, it appears that there is an upward trend in the 1260 day graphs for both the S&P 500 and the DJIA. The red lines in the graphs correspond to the largest single day % declines in the index history. Largest Declines
DJIA – June 10, 2013
S&P 500 – June 10, 2013
S&P500 and DJIA – June 4, 2013
Code now runs daily data. Here are the daily data results for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
DJIA – June 4, 2013
There does not appear to be a bubble at this time. It is striking how good this index works. The red vertical lines are the largest single day % declines in the history of the respective index. Link
S&P 500 – June 4, 2013
S&P500 and DJIA – Week Ending May 20, 2013
NOTE:
The posts before this one had some errors in the C++ code. I believe I have worked the most of the bugs out and this post contains the best plots to date.
I have been working on code to make a single plot which combines multiple sizes of data. When this has been finished there will only be one plot, not a six and seven year window together.
Also, the weekly data will now begin and end on Mondays, since I obtain my data from finance.yahoo.com.
Week ending May 20, 2013 for the S&P 500.
Based on the figures, there appears to be no indication of a current bubble.
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| Figure 1 |
Figure 1 was produced with C++ code. S&P 500. Six year window of data. Every data point is a new week. Every peak in the market is represented by a red vertical line.
1. Sept. 28, 1987 — followed by a 31.7% drop
2. August 28, 2000 — followed by a 36.5% drop
3. April 19, 2010 — followed by a 16% drop
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| Figure 2 |
Figure 2 was produced with C++ code. S&P 500. Seven year window of data. Every data point is a new week. Every peak in the market is represented by a red vertical line.
Same lines as Figure 1.
Week ending May 20, 2013 for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Based on the figures, there appears to be no indication of a current bubble.
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| Figure 3 |
Figure 3 was produced with C++ code. Dow Jones Industrial Average. Six year window of data. Every data point is a new week. Every peak in the market is represented by a red vertical line.
1. December 31, 1909 — followed by a 23% drop
2. October 2, 1929 — followed by a 43% drop
3. March 12, 1937 — followed by a 40% drop
4. September 23, 1955 — followed by a quick 8.7% drop and then recovery
5. January 8, 1960 — followed by a 15.6% drop
6. October 2, 1987 — followed by a 31.7% drop
7. July 27, 1990 — followed by a 17% drop
8. September 8, 2000 — followed by a 36% drop
9. October 12, 2007 — followed by a drop in excess of 42%
10. July 8, 2011 — followed by a 16% drop
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| Figure 4 |
Figure 4 was produced with C++ code. Dow Jones Industrial Average. Seven year window of data. Every data point is a new week. Every peak in the market is represented by a red vertical line.
Numbers correspond to same as Figure 3.
S&P500 and DJIA – Week Ending May 10, 2013
May 10, 2013:
Looking at the following graphs, I believe only Figure 1 forecasts any bubble. Towards the end of the index there lies strong spike and decline. However, this signal is not present in the other figures.
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| Figure 1 |
Figure 1 produced with C++ code. S&P 500. Seven year window of data. Every data point is a new week. Every peak in the market is represented by a red vertical line.
1. January 17, 1966 — followed by a 20.9% drop
2. January 15, 1973 — followed by a drop in excess of 23%
3. December 27, 1976 — followed by a drop in excess of 14.7%
4. March 26, 1984 — followed by a 11.8% drop
5. Sept. 28, 1987 — followed by a 31.7% drop
6. July 9, 1990 — followed by a 17.4% drop
7. August 28, 2000 — followed by a 36.5% drop
8. October 1, 2007 — followed by a drop in excess of 42%
9. July 18, 2011 — followed by a 16.5% drop
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| Figure 2 |
Figure 2 was produced with C++ code. S&P 500. Six year window of data. Every data point is a new week. Every peak in the market is represented by a red vertical line.
1. Sept. 28, 1987 — followed by a 31.7% drop
2. August 28, 2000 — followed by a 36.5% drop
3. April 19, 2010 — followed by a 16% drop
 |
| Figure 3 |
Figure 3 was produced with C++ code. Dow Jones Industrial Average. Six year window of data. Every data point is a new week. Every peak in the market is represented by a red vertical line.
1. December 31, 1909 — followed by a 23% drop
2. October 2, 1929 — followed by a 43% drop
3. March 12, 1937 — followed by a 40% drop
4. January 8, 1960 — followed by a 15.6% drop
5. October 2, 1987 — followed by a 31.7% drop
6. July 27, 1990 — followed by a 17% drop
7. September 8, 2000 — followed by a 36% drop
8. October 12, 2007 — followed by a drop in excess of 42%
 |
| Figure 4 |
Figure 4 was produced with C++ code. Dow Jones Industrial Average. Seven year window of data. Every data point is a new week. Every peak in the market is represented by a red vertical line.
1. December 31, 1909 — followed by a 23% drop
2. October 2, 1929 — followed by a 43% drop
3. March 12, 1937 — followed by a 40% drop
4. September 23, 1955 — followed by a quick 8.7% drop and then recovery
5. January 8, 1960 — followed by a 15.6% drop
6. October 2, 1987 — followed by a 31.7% drop
7. July 27, 1990 — followed by a 17% drop
8. September 8, 2000 — followed by a 36% drop
9. October 12, 2007 — followed by a drop in excess of 42%
10. July 8, 2011 — followed by a 16% drop