May 10, 2013:
I do not see any chances of there being a bubble in the DAX Index at this time.
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| Figure 1 |
Figure 1 produced with C++ code. DAX Index. Six year window of data. Every data point is a new week. Every peak in the market is represented by a red vertical line.
1. January 2, 2002 – followed by a 33% drop
2. December 1, 2003 – no drop
3. May 2, 2006 – followed by a quick 12% drop and recovery
4. May 26, 2008 – followed by a 38% drop
5. January 4, 2010 – followed by a quick 10% drop and recovery
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| Figure 2 |
Figure 2 produced with C++ code. DAX Index. Seven year window of data. Every data point is a new week. Every peak in the market is represented by a red vertical line.
1. May 21, 2001 – followed by a 39% drop
2. January 2, 2002 – followed by a 33% drop
3. December 1, 2003 – no drop
4. May 2, 2006 – followed by a quick 12% drop and recovery
5. January 4, 2010 – followed by a quick 10% drop and recovery
6. July 4, 2011 – followed by a 30% drop