japan – LPPL Market Watch

BOJ and Recent Correction: Nikkei 225

lpplmarketwatch — Tue, 04 Nov 2014 02:24:00 +0000

The recent stimulus plan revealed by the Bank of Japan on October 31 has been widely talked about by traders and investors. Interestingly, this plan was announced shortly after a peak in The Bubble Index: N225 (1260 and 1764 days). The 1260 day index peaked on September 30, 2014 and the 1764 day index peaked on October 7, 2014.

The Bubble Index: N225 (1260/1764 Days)

Nikkei – Week Ending May 27, 2013

lpplmarketwatch — Sun, 02 Jun 2013 21:42:00 +0000

Nikkei

Week ending May 27, 2013.

Based on the figures, there appears to be no indication of a current bubble.

Nikkei Bubble Index – Week Ending May 27, 2013

Nikkei – Week Ending May 10, 2013

lpplmarketwatch — Thu, 16 May 2013 23:11:00 +0000

May 10, 2013:

I do not see any chances of there being a bubble in the Nikkei Index at this time. Although, there appears to have been a recent bubble.

Figure 1

Figure 1 produced with C++ code. Nikkei Index. Seven year window of data. Every data point is a new week. Every peak in the market is represented by a red vertical line.
1. June 24, 1996 – followed by a 23.2% drop
2. May 20, 2002 – followed by a 35.7% drop
3. September 29, 2008 – followed by a 34% drop
4. March 29, 2010 – followed by a 20% drop
5. March 12, 2012 – followed by a 16.7% drop

Figure 2

Figure 2 produced with C++ code. Nikkei Index. Six year window of data. Every data point is a new week. Every peak in the market is represented by a red vertical line.
1. May 1, 1995 – followed by a 15% drop
2. November 18, 1996 – followed by a 18% drop
3. September 17, 2001 – exact bottom of downturn (or perhaps related to Sept. 11, 2001)
4. March 29, 2010 – followed by a 20% drop
5. March 12, 2012 – followed by a 16.7% drop