europe – LPPL Market Watch

Vienna Stock Market Crash of 1873

lpplmarketwatch — Thu, 11 Dec 2014 18:24:00 +0000

The Vienna stock market crash of 1873 would provide an excellent source of price data to test The Bubble Index. Below you will find a summary result of the crash found in The Parliamentary Papers: House of Commons and Command, Volume 67 (pgs. 1216-7). Unfortunately, the full data does not seem readily available in one source. It seems that the price data is scattered across various German/Austrian finance journals and other non-florin based texts like The Economist (pounds sterling). It would be richly rewarding to find that the price data has survived two world wars. In my free time I will try to piece together all the quotes from various listed companies on the Vienna Stock Exchange during the period of 1865 – 1875. This should provide additional research material to study the formation of stock bubbles and crashes. No promises…

Name	March 1873 – Capital Paid up, per share	Paid in Capital Units	Share Price on 15th March 1873 (florins)	Price on 31st December 1873 (florins)	December 1873 – Capital Paid up, per share	Nominal Price change (March – December 1873)	% change (March – December 1873)
Anglo-Austrian Bank	120	silver	317	132	120	-185	-58.36%
Austro-Egyptian Bank	80	silver	176	101	80	-75	-42.61%
Austro-Ottoman Bank	80	silver	136	55	80	-81	-59.56%
Austro-Turkish Bank	80	silver	130	26	80	-104	-80.00%
General Building Society	80	currency	276	54	160	-222	-80.43%
Vienna Building Society	100	currency	308	76	100	-232	-75.32%
Moneychangers’ Building Bank	40	currency	77	8	40	-69	-89.61%
Leopoldstadt Building Society	100	currency	118	24	100	-94	-79.66%
Military Building Society	100	currency	130	30	100	-100	-76.92%
Lower Austrian Building Society	100	currency	118	15	100	-103	-87.29%
Styrian Building Society	40	currency	55	16	50	-39	-70.91%
Building Shares Society	80	currency	153	8	80	-145	-94.77%
Trieste Building Society	50	currency	53	30	50	-23	-43.40%
Building and Rental Society	100	currency	131	26	100	-105	-80.15%
Bank for Building and Communication	80	currency	124	20	80	-104	-83.87%
Baden and Vocslau Building Society	40	currency	90	5	60	-85	-94.44%
Bank of Exchange Operations	200	currency	290	32	200	-258	-88.97%
Stock Exchange Bank for Arbitrations	200	currency	285	1	200	-284	-99.65%
Stock Exchange Credit Bank	80	currency	181	1	80	-180	-99.45%
Stock Moneychangers’ Bank	200	currency	220	0	200	-220	-100.00%
Bank for Association of Capital	200	currency	318	10	200	-308	-96.86%
Central Mortgage Bank	80	currency	126	0	80	-126	-100.00%
Vienna Commission Bank	200	currency	219	0	200	-219	-100.00%
Vienna Commercial Bank	80	currency	167	15	80	-152	-91.02%
Credit Bank	160	currency	340	237	160	-103	-30.29%
Vienna Credit Bank	200	currency	270	96	200	-174	-64.44%
Deposit Bank	80	currency	123	0	80	-123	-100.00%
Domus Bank	100	currency	112	0	100	-112	-100.00%
Danube Stream Navigation Company	525	currency	700	514	525	-186	-26.57%
Securities Bank	200	currency	256	0	200	-256	-100.00%
Lower Austrian Discount Company	500	currency	1165	885	500	-280	-24.03%
Franco-Austrian Bank	80	currency	150	29	80	-121	-80.67%
Trading Bank	200	currency	320	60	200	-260	-81.25%
Hypothecated Rental Bank	80	currency	278	11	100	-267	-96.04%
Industrial Bank	100	currency	130	5	100	-125	-96.15%
Industrial and Mortgage Credit Bank	80	currency	144	19	100	-125	-86.81%
Italian Austrian Bank	80	currency	205	30	80	-175	-85.37%
Leopoldstadt Bank	200	currency	232	50	200	-182	-78.45%
Lombard Association Bank	200	currency	275	63	200	-212	-77.09%
Provincial Bank Association	140	currency	203	103	200	-100	-49.26%
National Bank Association	500	currency	983	1026	500	43	4.37%
Austrian General Bank	200	currency	375	34	200	-341	-90.93%
Intervention Bank	80	currency	145	35	80	-110	-75.86%
Prague Banking Association	80	currency	129	36	80	-93	-72.09%
Installments and Rentals Bank	120	currency	123	30	120	-93	-75.61%
Estates Bank	100	currency	136	15	100	-121	-88.97%
Maritime Commercial Bank	80	currency	105	32	80	-73	-69.52%
Savings and Lombard Bank	200	currency	230	20	200	-210	-91.30%
Union Bank	200	currency	253	107	200	-146	-57.71%
Association Bank	80	currency	216	16	80	-200	-92.59%
Trading Association	200	currency	228	110	200	-118	-51.75%
Vienna Banking Association	80	currency	402	60	80	-342	-85.07%
Vienna Stock Exchange Bank	80	currency	236	0	80	-236	-100.00%
Vienna Moneychangers’ Office Bank	80	currency	265	0	80	-265	-100.00%
Vienna Change Bank	80	currency	321	0	80	-321	-100.00%
Vienna Change Association	80	currency	231	76	80	-155	-67.10%
Elbemuhl Paper Manufacturing Company	100	currency	127	60	100	-67	-52.76%
Inneberg Iron Works	180	currency	351	175	200	-176	-50.14%
Wienerberg Brick Kiln Company	120	currency	265	130	120	-135	-50.94%
Lower Austrian Building Association	80	currency	118	24	80	-94	-79.66%
Union Building Society	80	currency	174	44	80	-130	-74.71%
Vienna Building Society	60	currency	128	24	70	-104	-81.25%
Vienna Parceling Building Society	100	currency	174	21	100	-153	-87.93%
Tramway Building Society	100	currency	161	46	100	-115	-71.43%
Mountain Railway Company	100	currency	258	28	100	-230	-89.15%
Francis Joseph Railway	200	silver	224	211		-13	-5.80%
Charles Louis Railway	210	currency	225	225		0	0.00%
Elizabeth Railway	210	currency	246	221		-25	-10.16%
Crown Prince Rudolf Railway	200	silver	170	156		-14	-8.24%
Northern Railway	1050	currency	2280	2100		-180	-7.89%
Southern Railway	200	silver	186	167		-19	-10.22%
North-West Railway	200	silver	217	194		-23	-10.60%
Hungarian North-East Railway	200	silver	156	98		-58	-37.18%
Hungarian East Railway	200	silver	132	40		-92	-69.70%
Hungarian Western Railway	200	silver	173	132		-41	-23.70%
Kaschau-Oderberg Railway	200	silver	174	134		-40	-22.99%
Lemberg-Czernowitz Railway	200	silver	152	130		-22	-14.47%
Transylvania Railway	200	silver	175	152		-23	-13.14%
States Railway	200	silver	332	339		7	2.11%
Theiss Railway	200	silver	242	195		-47	-19.42%
Tramway Company	200	currency	358	154		-204	-56.98%
Omnibus Company	100	currency	138	42		-96	-69.57%
						Average % Change	-65.61%
Source:Parliamentary Papers, House of Commons and Command, Volume 67; pages 1216 – 1217						Average % Change – Railways	-16.76%
						Average % Change Excluding Railways	-76.54%

The Dutch East India Company – VOC – 17th Century

lpplmarketwatch — Fri, 05 Dec 2014 06:00:00 +0000

I recently read an article which compared the inflation adjusted value of the Dutch East India Company (VOC) to modern mega-corporations today. The peak inflation adjusted value of VOC was calculated to be around $7 trillion USD!! Quite ridiculous… Indeed, so I wanted to analyze the price data of VOC with The Bubble Index. Thanks to the prices found by L.O. Petram here, the graphs below were produced (meaningful graphs are the 1764, 2520, 5040, and 10080 day indices).

It is noteworthy to point out that the 10,080 Day index peaked on November 13, 1648 — approximately six months after the Peace of Münster was signed. The independence of the United Netherlands from the Spanish Crown occurred at a peak in the stock price of VOC and was followed by a large correction in subsequent years.

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The Bubble Index: VOC (1602 – 1698)

The Bubbles of 1720

lpplmarketwatch — Fri, 05 Dec 2014 00:49:00 +0000

The bubbles of 1720 are frequently mentioned and well known. These include the stocks of the South Sea Company, the Mississippi Company, the Dutch West India Company, and the Old East India Company. With data obtained via the Yale School of Management’s South Seas Bubble 1720 Project, The Bubble Index has created the following graphs:

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1720 Bubbles

The Bubble Index: DAX – August 27, 2013

lpplmarketwatch — Thu, 29 Aug 2013 01:09:00 +0000

The Bubble Index: DAX – August 27, 2013

The Bubble Index: AEX – August 27, 2013

lpplmarketwatch — Thu, 29 Aug 2013 01:02:00 +0000

The Bubble Index: AEX – August 27, 2013

The Bubble Index: Euro/Dollars – August 23, 2013

lpplmarketwatch — Sat, 24 Aug 2013 18:27:00 +0000

No sign of a bubble in the Euro.

The Bubble Index: Euro/Dollars – August 23, 2013

FTSE – Week Ending May 28, 2013

lpplmarketwatch — Mon, 03 Jun 2013 01:21:00 +0000

FTSE

Week ending May 28, 2013.

Based on the figures, there appears to be no indication of a current bubble.

FTSE Bubble Index – Week Ending May 28, 2013

DAX – Week Ending May 27, 2013

lpplmarketwatch — Sun, 02 Jun 2013 19:34:00 +0000

DAX

Week ending May 27, 2013.

Based on the figures, there appears to be no indication of a current bubble.

DAX Bubble Index – Week Ending May 27, 2013

DAX – Week Ending May 20, 2013

lpplmarketwatch — Thu, 23 May 2013 03:50:00 +0000

May 20, 2013

I do not see any chances of there being a bubble in the DAX Index at this time.

Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure 2 produced with C++ code. DAX Index. Seven year window of data. Every data point is a new week. Every peak in the market is represented by a red vertical line.
1. January 2, 2002 – followed by a 33% drop

DAX – Week Ending May 10, 2013

lpplmarketwatch — Fri, 17 May 2013 13:19:00 +0000

May 10, 2013:

I do not see any chances of there being a bubble in the DAX Index at this time.

Figure 1

Figure 1 produced with C++ code. DAX Index. Six year window of data. Every data point is a new week. Every peak in the market is represented by a red vertical line.
1. January 2, 2002 – followed by a 33% drop
2. December 1, 2003 – no drop
3. May 2, 2006 – followed by a quick 12% drop and recovery
4. May 26, 2008 – followed by a 38% drop
5. January 4, 2010 – followed by a quick 10% drop and recovery

Figure 2

Figure 2 produced with C++ code. DAX Index. Seven year window of data. Every data point is a new week. Every peak in the market is represented by a red vertical line.
1. May 21, 2001 – followed by a 39% drop
2. January 2, 2002 – followed by a 33% drop
3. December 1, 2003 – no drop
4. May 2, 2006 – followed by a quick 12% drop and recovery
5. January 4, 2010 – followed by a quick 10% drop and recovery
6. July 4, 2011 – followed by a 30% drop