crisis – LPPL Market Watch http://localhost Blog of The Bubble Index Wed, 07 Feb 2018 02:25:07 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.9.4 Bitcoin Phase-Change Prediction Analysis https://lpplmarketwatch.com/2018/02/03/bitcoin-phase-change-prediction-analysis/ https://lpplmarketwatch.com/2018/02/03/bitcoin-phase-change-prediction-analysis/#respond Sat, 03 Feb 2018 19:46:18 +0000 https://lpplmarketwatch.com/?p=1485 On December 20th, 23rd, and 29th The Bubble Index: Bitcoin/USD 52, 104, and 153 day indices, respectively, peaked. This means that the derivative reached zero and indicates that the phase-change probability would be highest in 21 days. Thus, on January 7th I predicted that we will see a phase change in 21 days from the point of those local peaks. In other words, the greatest probability for a phase change would occur between the days January 9th and 18th. There was some personal uncertainty because the longer term indices (512 – 1764 day indices) had yet to reach a local peak.

At its height, the Bitcoin/USD exchange rate was around $19700 on December 17, 2017. When the 52, 104, and 153 day indices peaked the exchange rate closed at $17340, $13174, and $14323.

Looking at the exchange rate data after January 7th, the most noticeable movement was the large draw-down which started on January 6th and still continues. If we look at the closing rate on January 9th: $14920 and compare it to $8317, the price at its low on February 2nd, we see a draw-down of 44.26%.

Based on this draw-down I would conclude that the prediction on January 7th, based solely on The Bubble Index’s quantitative output, was accurate and it remains to be seen what will happen to the Bitcoin/USD exchange rate, now that the longer term indices have peaked. My personal opinion is that the rate will continue its downward progression until it reaches significant support, perhaps at the $6000 or $4000 level.

]]> https://lpplmarketwatch.com/2018/02/03/bitcoin-phase-change-prediction-analysis/feed/ 0 Shenzhen and Shanghai Market Bubble https://lpplmarketwatch.com/2015/07/08/mainland-china-bubble/ https://lpplmarketwatch.com/2015/07/08/mainland-china-bubble/#respond Wed, 08 Jul 2015 16:02:33 +0000 https://lpplmarketwatch.com/?p=615 The screenshots below were taken from The Bubble Index Plot from the most recent update, July 5, 2015. The bubble in the Chinese mainland shares was noticable. The short term windows show rapid increases starting in December 2014. The China 50 and China 95 plots are the composite indices formed by calculating the 50% and 95% distribution value of the daily values for The Bubble Index for all stocks monitored on both the Shenzhen and Shanghai exchanges.

The Bubble Index Composite: China 95%
The Bubble Index Composite: China 95%
The Bubble Index Composite: China 50%
The Bubble Index Composite: China 50%
The Bubble Index: 000001.SS
The Bubble Index: 000001.SS
]]> https://lpplmarketwatch.com/2015/07/08/mainland-china-bubble/feed/ 0 Vienna Stock Market Crash of 1873 https://lpplmarketwatch.com/2014/12/11/vienna-stock-market-crash-of-1873/ https://lpplmarketwatch.com/2014/12/11/vienna-stock-market-crash-of-1873/#respond Thu, 11 Dec 2014 18:24:00 +0000 https://lpplmarketwatch.com/?p=7 The Vienna stock market crash of 1873 would provide an excellent source of price data to test The Bubble Index. Below you will find a summary result of the crash found in The Parliamentary Papers: House of Commons and Command, Volume 67 (pgs. 1216-7). Unfortunately, the full data does not seem readily available in one source. It seems that the price data is scattered across various German/Austrian finance journals and other non-florin based texts like The Economist (pounds sterling). It would be richly rewarding to find that the price data has survived two world wars. In my free time I will try to piece together all the quotes from various listed companies on the Vienna Stock Exchange during the period of 1865 – 1875. This should provide additional research material to study the formation of stock bubbles and crashes. No promises…

Name March 1873 – Capital Paid up, per share Paid in Capital Units Share Price on 15th March 1873 (florins) Price on 31st December 1873 (florins) December 1873 – Capital Paid up, per share Nominal Price change (March – December 1873) % change (March – December 1873)
Anglo-Austrian Bank 120 silver 317 132 120 -185 -58.36%
Austro-Egyptian Bank 80 silver 176 101 80 -75 -42.61%
Austro-Ottoman Bank 80 silver 136 55 80 -81 -59.56%
Austro-Turkish Bank 80 silver 130 26 80 -104 -80.00%
General Building Society 80 currency 276 54 160 -222 -80.43%
Vienna Building Society 100 currency 308 76 100 -232 -75.32%
Moneychangers’ Building Bank 40 currency 77 8 40 -69 -89.61%
Leopoldstadt Building Society 100 currency 118 24 100 -94 -79.66%
Military Building Society 100 currency 130 30 100 -100 -76.92%
Lower Austrian Building Society 100 currency 118 15 100 -103 -87.29%
Styrian Building Society 40 currency 55 16 50 -39 -70.91%
Building Shares Society 80 currency 153 8 80 -145 -94.77%
Trieste Building Society 50 currency 53 30 50 -23 -43.40%
Building and Rental Society 100 currency 131 26 100 -105 -80.15%
Bank for Building and Communication 80 currency 124 20 80 -104 -83.87%
Baden and Vocslau Building Society 40 currency 90 5 60 -85 -94.44%
Bank of Exchange Operations 200 currency 290 32 200 -258 -88.97%
Stock Exchange Bank for Arbitrations 200 currency 285 1 200 -284 -99.65%
Stock Exchange Credit Bank 80 currency 181 1 80 -180 -99.45%
Stock Moneychangers’ Bank 200 currency 220 0 200 -220 -100.00%
Bank for Association of Capital 200 currency 318 10 200 -308 -96.86%
Central Mortgage Bank 80 currency 126 0 80 -126 -100.00%
Vienna Commission Bank 200 currency 219 0 200 -219 -100.00%
Vienna Commercial Bank 80 currency 167 15 80 -152 -91.02%
Credit Bank 160 currency 340 237 160 -103 -30.29%
Vienna Credit Bank 200 currency 270 96 200 -174 -64.44%
Deposit Bank 80 currency 123 0 80 -123 -100.00%
Domus Bank 100 currency 112 0 100 -112 -100.00%
Danube Stream Navigation Company 525 currency 700 514 525 -186 -26.57%
Securities Bank 200 currency 256 0 200 -256 -100.00%
Lower Austrian Discount Company 500 currency 1165 885 500 -280 -24.03%
Franco-Austrian Bank 80 currency 150 29 80 -121 -80.67%
Trading Bank 200 currency 320 60 200 -260 -81.25%
Hypothecated Rental Bank 80 currency 278 11 100 -267 -96.04%
Industrial Bank 100 currency 130 5 100 -125 -96.15%
Industrial and Mortgage Credit Bank 80 currency 144 19 100 -125 -86.81%
Italian Austrian Bank 80 currency 205 30 80 -175 -85.37%
Leopoldstadt Bank 200 currency 232 50 200 -182 -78.45%
Lombard Association Bank 200 currency 275 63 200 -212 -77.09%
Provincial Bank Association 140 currency 203 103 200 -100 -49.26%
National Bank Association 500 currency 983 1026 500 43 4.37%
Austrian General Bank 200 currency 375 34 200 -341 -90.93%
Intervention Bank 80 currency 145 35 80 -110 -75.86%
Prague Banking Association 80 currency 129 36 80 -93 -72.09%
Installments and Rentals Bank 120 currency 123 30 120 -93 -75.61%
Estates Bank 100 currency 136 15 100 -121 -88.97%
Maritime Commercial Bank 80 currency 105 32 80 -73 -69.52%
Savings and Lombard Bank 200 currency 230 20 200 -210 -91.30%
Union Bank 200 currency 253 107 200 -146 -57.71%
Association Bank 80 currency 216 16 80 -200 -92.59%
Trading Association 200 currency 228 110 200 -118 -51.75%
Vienna Banking Association 80 currency 402 60 80 -342 -85.07%
Vienna Stock Exchange Bank 80 currency 236 0 80 -236 -100.00%
Vienna Moneychangers’ Office Bank 80 currency 265 0 80 -265 -100.00%
Vienna Change Bank 80 currency 321 0 80 -321 -100.00%
Vienna Change Association 80 currency 231 76 80 -155 -67.10%
Elbemuhl Paper Manufacturing Company 100 currency 127 60 100 -67 -52.76%
Inneberg Iron Works 180 currency 351 175 200 -176 -50.14%
Wienerberg Brick Kiln Company 120 currency 265 130 120 -135 -50.94%
Lower Austrian Building Association 80 currency 118 24 80 -94 -79.66%
Union Building Society 80 currency 174 44 80 -130 -74.71%
Vienna Building Society 60 currency 128 24 70 -104 -81.25%
Vienna Parceling Building Society 100 currency 174 21 100 -153 -87.93%
Tramway Building Society 100 currency 161 46 100 -115 -71.43%
Mountain Railway Company 100 currency 258 28 100 -230 -89.15%
Francis Joseph Railway 200 silver 224 211 -13 -5.80%
Charles Louis Railway 210 currency 225 225 0 0.00%
Elizabeth Railway 210 currency 246 221 -25 -10.16%
Crown Prince Rudolf Railway 200 silver 170 156 -14 -8.24%
Northern Railway 1050 currency 2280 2100 -180 -7.89%
Southern Railway 200 silver 186 167 -19 -10.22%
North-West Railway 200 silver 217 194 -23 -10.60%
Hungarian North-East Railway 200 silver 156 98 -58 -37.18%
Hungarian East Railway 200 silver 132 40 -92 -69.70%
Hungarian Western Railway 200 silver 173 132 -41 -23.70%
Kaschau-Oderberg Railway 200 silver 174 134 -40 -22.99%
Lemberg-Czernowitz Railway 200 silver 152 130 -22 -14.47%
Transylvania Railway 200 silver 175 152 -23 -13.14%
States Railway 200 silver 332 339 7 2.11%
Theiss Railway 200 silver 242 195 -47 -19.42%
Tramway Company 200 currency 358 154 -204 -56.98%
Omnibus Company 100 currency 138 42 -96 -69.57%
Average % Change -65.61%
Source:Parliamentary Papers, House of Commons and Command, Volume 67; pages 1216 – 1217 Average % Change – Railways -16.76%
Average % Change Excluding Railways -76.54%
]]> https://lpplmarketwatch.com/2014/12/11/vienna-stock-market-crash-of-1873/feed/ 0 USA – Panic of 1857 https://lpplmarketwatch.com/2014/07/26/usa-panic-of-1857/ https://lpplmarketwatch.com/2014/07/26/usa-panic-of-1857/#respond Sat, 26 Jul 2014 19:37:00 +0000 https://lpplmarketwatch.com/?p=19 The Bubble Index: USA (1790 – Present) (10080 days) peaks in early 1857. I say “early 1857” because the actual date, February 15th, was only an approximate date used to simulate the daily data. And as American historians know, the Panic of 1857 was disastrous and preceded the American Civil War. Note: The daily data is simulated based on yearly data points provided by the Davis Industrial Production Index.

]]> https://lpplmarketwatch.com/2014/07/26/usa-panic-of-1857/feed/ 0 The Crisis of 2008-9 – Dow Jones Industrial https://lpplmarketwatch.com/2014/04/04/the-crisis-of-2008-9-dow-jones-industrial/ https://lpplmarketwatch.com/2014/04/04/the-crisis-of-2008-9-dow-jones-industrial/#respond Fri, 04 Apr 2014 12:59:00 +0000 https://lpplmarketwatch.com/?p=40 The following PDF shows The Bubble Index before and after the Crisis of 2008-9. Unlike the 1764 day index, which does not display a spike before the panic, the 10080 day index clearly shows a massive increase. And the same happens with the 20160 day index. What’s striking is that this increase started in the early 1980’s. This increase reaches a peak in November 2008.

Download 10080 Days PDF

Download 20160 Days PDF


DJIA 2008 Crisis – The Bubble Index

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