crash – LPPL Market Watch

Bitcoin Phase-Change Prediction Analysis

lpplmarketwatch — Sat, 03 Feb 2018 19:46:18 +0000

On December 20th, 23rd, and 29th The Bubble Index: Bitcoin/USD 52, 104, and 153 day indices, respectively, peaked. This means that the derivative reached zero and indicates that the phase-change probability would be highest in 21 days. Thus, on January 7th I predicted that we will see a phase change in 21 days from the point of those local peaks. In other words, the greatest probability for a phase change would occur between the days January 9th and 18th. There was some personal uncertainty because the longer term indices (512 – 1764 day indices) had yet to reach a local peak.

At its height, the Bitcoin/USD exchange rate was around $19700 on December 17, 2017. When the 52, 104, and 153 day indices peaked the exchange rate closed at $17340, $13174, and $14323.

Looking at the exchange rate data after January 7th, the most noticeable movement was the large draw-down which started on January 6th and still continues. If we look at the closing rate on January 9th: $14920 and compare it to $8317, the price at its low on February 2nd, we see a draw-down of 44.26%.

Based on this draw-down I would conclude that the prediction on January 7th, based solely on The Bubble Index’s quantitative output, was accurate and it remains to be seen what will happen to the Bitcoin/USD exchange rate, now that the longer term indices have peaked. My personal opinion is that the rate will continue its downward progression until it reaches significant support, perhaps at the $6000 or $4000 level.

Shenzhen and Shanghai Market Bubble

lpplmarketwatch — Wed, 08 Jul 2015 16:02:33 +0000

The screenshots below were taken from The Bubble Index Plot from the most recent update, July 5, 2015. The bubble in the Chinese mainland shares was noticable. The short term windows show rapid increases starting in December 2014. The China 50 and China 95 plots are the composite indices formed by calculating the 50% and 95% distribution value of the daily values for The Bubble Index for all stocks monitored on both the Shenzhen and Shanghai exchanges.

The Bubble Index Composite: China 95%

The Bubble Index Composite: China 50%

The Bubble Index: 000001.SS

3D Contour of 1987 Crash

lpplmarketwatch — Tue, 24 Feb 2015 01:54:40 +0000

The images in this post were obtained from The Bubble Index Contour: S&P 500 (1985 – 1990). The software used is 3DField. As you can see from the vertical black line drawn on the two contour maps, Black Monday, October 19, 1987 occurred near a mountain peak in the contour graph.

The Crash of 1987 – Dow Jones Industrial

lpplmarketwatch — Fri, 04 Apr 2014 04:16:00 +0000

The following PDF shows The Bubble Index before and after the crash of 1987. It is interesting to note that the spike before the crash is not followed by another spike, as in the case of the 1929 crash.

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DJIA 1987 Crash – The Bubble Index

The Crash of 1929 – Dow Jones Industrial

lpplmarketwatch — Fri, 04 Apr 2014 04:08:00 +0000

The following PDF shows The Bubble Index before and after the crash of 1929. It is interesting to note the spike before the crash, followed by another spike of larger magnitude after the huge decline.

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DJIA 1929 Crash – The Bubble Index

Flow Chart of Price Formation and Reaction

lpplmarketwatch — Fri, 21 Feb 2014 03:14:00 +0000

The Bubble Index: Rupee – August 16, 2013

lpplmarketwatch — Fri, 23 Aug 2013 14:38:00 +0000

The Bubble Index for the Rupee indicates that the recent price movements in the Rupee may be the beginning of a future bubble (anti-bubble).

The Bubble Index: Rupee – 08_16_13

The Bubble Index: Tesla – August 13, 2013

lpplmarketwatch — Fri, 23 Aug 2013 14:34:00 +0000

Tesla currently exhibits the patterns of herding and bubble formation.

The Bubble Index: Tesla – 08_13_13